“This is where Bayes' Theorem comes in and helps us have a clearer picture. Using the theorem, we must look at all data and update our hypothesis with new evidence.” ― Dan Morris
How we as intellectual and wise human beings decide and weigh our good and bad intrigues me.
I have tried several methods to arrive at a decision - the SWAP analysis, the pros & cons examination, the [opportunity cost - future significance] study and several other intrinsic unconscious ways I cannot name, and yes, also the proverbial GUT feeling.
But the more important decisions I have made and studied I have realised that there can be several scenarios we can form in retrospect. But, the actual outcome of the decision plays out in the present. By forming these parallel-world scenarios, we torture ourselves into believing we have let go of something great.
While maybe that could be the case, there is an equal chance the opposite may have been the case too.
Things seldom are how they seem. It is only with close examination and critical thought that we can reduce our chances of ending up with a falsity. We can only optimise for the findings that are presented to us as we go and how we inculcate them into our present thought/idea.